Q

MAKE A DONATION

Donation amount
Q

Sign up to the Bow Group Mailing List

* indicates required



Conservative Revolution

Britain and the world’s oldest conservative think tank

Conservative Revolution

Britain and the world’s oldest conservative think tank

ISIS in Libya: history must not be repeated

Feb 25, 2015 | Archive, Policies

On January 17, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi demanded the intervention by the international community following the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts by offshoots of ISIS in Libya.

Sisi, preferring the military option, immediately ordered air strikes on Isis military camps and supplied weapons to the government in Tobruk, officially recognised by the UN but opposed by the ruling party in Libya.

In response, Tripoli denounced the Egyptian intervention as a violation of Libyan sovereignty and against international law. While the Egyptian government regarded this operation as exclusively directed against the jihadists, several civilians were reported to have been injured.

Cairo’s solutions to ISIS expansion are those of a government that sees religious insurgencies as a much closer threat than Western powers do, and which it has been trying to counter since its first day in office. Sisi’s speech at the beginning of 2015, as well as the executions of hundreds of Islamists since Sisi came to power, are confirmation of his secular stand. The killing of 21 Egyptian citizens and the hoisting of the Caliphate’s black flags in Derna have put even more pressure on the President, whose response has been quick and ready.

Perhaps too ready: only a week ago, Egypt purchased 24 fighter jets from France, in a deal that involved several months of negotiations. The fear that the situation could worsen in Libya pushed the agreement towards a more rapid conclusion, given an ever urgent need of military jets for Cairo. While this could be justified by the current turn of events, it also reveals that Egypt had been planning its strategy for a long time, according to its political goals as well as security issues.

The international community, and in particular Western powers, should be wary of getting involved, again, in an internal conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. The Egyptian air-strikes have already provided plenty of reasons for foreign nations not to hurry into Libya. Violations of sovereign space, collateral killings of civilians and the delivery of weapons to national groups bring back sad memories of the most recent years, where military interventions were not as effective hoped. Western forces should be cautious and must avoid being dragged into another conflict in a difficult region, not least because the needs and foreign policy goals of countries such as the UK are inevitably different from those of local powers in the MENA region.

Nonetheless, being cautious does not mean underestimating the threat posed by ISIS and other radicalised groups. The Caliphate must not be allowed to expand and strengthen the hold on its territory. Unlike the previous counter-terror operations this time the effort should be led by regional actors, as highlighted by Martin Reardon, a former FBI counter terrorism expert.

The most auspicious solution would be to favour negotiations between Tripoli and Tobruk, in order to stabilise Libya by creating a common front to fight religious extremism. Indeed, despite many hindrances, a shared interest to improve the security of the country might bring Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn closer, because as Al Jazeera notes, “the time is very right”.

Furthermore, security threats are directly related to economic ones. ISIS, despite the recent wake-up call from Egypt, has established itself in Libya since last summer, launching an increasing number of attacks and expanding its control. As of now, the number of fighters are not yet thought to be more than 400 yet they have managed to strike oil pipelines and take control of important cities such as Derna and Sirte.

While the recreation of the Caliphate’s power in Syria and Iraq is still unlikely, Libya has suffered significant economic losses, which have affected both Tobruk and Tripoli. Oil production has slowed down to 350,000 barrels per day, less than one-fourth of the pre-2011 pumping activity. Exponents of both Libya Dawn and Operation Dignity have already opened up to possible talks, as both parties are feeling ever more threatened by the Caliphate. Recent examples would be the taking-over of Sirte, perilously close to Tripoli, and the bombing of a pipeline near Tobruk.

Shared economic interests might therefore be a trigger for new reconciliation talks, although many hindrances lie in the way of a united Libya. One such obstacle could be the reluctance of local federalist actors to support unification, as a centralized government would weaken their influence . However in the long-run ISIS might affect local stakeholders as well as the two governments of Libya, leaving no winners unless stability is reached.